In conjunction with the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2018, the Treasury’s New Zealand Debt Management Office (NZDMO) has updated its borrowing programme.
The Core Crown borrowing programme, which includes the issuance of New Zealand Government Bonds (NZGBs) and Treasury Bills (T-Bills) is forecast to be $1 billion higher at the end of the forecast period compared to forecasts at the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2017 (Half Year Update). At the end of the period, NZGBs on issue are forecast to be $3 billion higher, and T-Bills on issue to be $2 billion lower, than at the Half Year Update.
The 2018/19 NZGB programme is set at $8 billion, $1 billion higher than that forecast at the Half Year Update. Forecast NZGB programmes for 2019/20 and 2020/21 are also $1 billion higher than forecast at the Half Year Update. The forecast NZGB programme for 2021/22 is unchanged from that forecast at the Half Year Update.
Forecast NZGB issuance and outstanding
|Year ending 30 June (face value)||2018||2019||2020||2021||2022||Total|
|Gross NZGB issuance ($ billion)||7.0||8.0||8.0||8.0||7.0||38.0|
|NZGB maturities and repurchases ($ billion)||7.2||11.2||5.8||11.1||0.0||35.3|
|Net NZGB issuance ($ billion)||-0.2||-3.2||2.2||-3.1||7.0||2.7|
|NZGBs on issue ($ billion)||74.2||71.0||73.2||70.1||77.1||n/a|
|NZGBs on issue (percent of GDP)||25.0%||23.3%||22.9%||20.9%||22.0%||n/a|
Forecast Treasury Bills outstanding
|Year ending 30 June (face value)||2018||2019||2020||2021||2022|
|Forecast T-Bills on issue ($ billion)||4||2||2||4||2|
The inter-year forecast profile of T-Bills outstanding differs from the Half Year Update. This reflects the more flexible approach to T-Bill issuance that will be implemented by NZDMO from 1 July 2018. For more information, please see: Advisory Note: Changes to Issuance Approach for Treasury Bills at https://www.nzdmo.govt.nz/analyst-centre/changes-issuance-approach-treasury-bills
- Issuance for the remainder of 2017/18 is planned to be in line with the previously-announced Government Bond Tender Schedule for the quarter ending 30 June 2018.
- Inflation-indexed bond issuance is expected to be around $1 billion of the $8 billion 2018/19 domestic bond programme.
- The repurchase programme of the 15 March 2019 nominal bond will continue through until 15 September 2018, after which the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will assume responsibility for repurchase operations.
- The NZDMO plans to commence a repurchase programme of the 15 April 2020 nominal bond in 2018/19. Repurchase activities will be dependent on portfolio requirements and market conditions.
- Forecast NZGBs on issue are consistent with the Government’s commitment to maintain levels of NZGBs on issue at not less than 20 percent of GDP over time. Adjustments to the programme volumes were not required to specifically meet this commitment.
Sarah Vrede | Director, Financial Operations and Head of New Zealand Debt Management Office | The Treasury
Tel: +64 4 917 6071
Kim Martin | Principal Strategist | New Zealand Debt Management Office | The Treasury
Tel: +64 4 890 7274